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paigowtiles| Minmetals Futures: Waiting for the correction and stabilization of silver prices, long-term thinking

2024-05-27 13:01:29

Market summary: precious metal prices have adjusted back this week, but have stabilized at high levels. Shanghai gold fell 1.Paigowtiles.84%, to 554Paigowtiles.48 yuan / g, Shanghai Bank rose 4.51% to 7994.00 yuan / kg, COMEX gold fell 3.50% to US $2335.20 / oz, COMEX silver fell 3.89% to US $30.54 / oz, 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.90% to 4.46%, and the dollar index rose 0.24% to 104.74

paigowtiles| Minmetals Futures: Waiting for the correction and stabilization of silver prices, long-term thinking

Fed minutes neutral hawks: the Fed released minutes, generally partial hawks. The minutes show that participants believe that the labor marketPaigowtilesThe tension has slowed down. But when it comes to interest rates, many participants believe that the impact of high interest rates is likely to be less than in the past, long-term equilibrium interest rates may be higher than previously thought, or potential output levels may be lower than estimated. On the balance sheet, a number of participants stressed that slowing down the pace of contraction would not have an impact on the monetary policy position. After the release of the minutes, a number of market institutions delayedPaigowtilesThe timing of the Fed's rate cut is predicted. There is an upward risk in the medium-and long-term policy interest rate in the United States, and the price of gold and silver has fallen inside and outside.

Economic data: us economic data strengthened, with the US S & P global manufacturing PMI reading of 50.9 in May, higher than expected and previous reading of 50. The initial PMI of the service industry is 54.8, which is higher than the expected and previous value of 51.3. The initial value of comprehensive PMI was 54.4, which was higher than the expected value of 51.1 and the previous value of 51.3. The final consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan in May was 69.1, higher than the expected 67.5 and the previous value of 67.4. Strong economic data have dampened expectations of the Fed's subsequent interest rate cuts, with the CME interest rate observer showing that the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates once this year, with the first cut in November, delayed from previous data.

Precious metals trading and positions: gold and silver trading in and out of the market improved. The five-day average trading volume of COMEX gold rose 16.99% to 244200 lots. As of the latest reporting period, COMEX gold positions rose 1.46% to 530600 lots. The five-day average trading volume of Shanghai gold rose 29.1% to 399900 lots, while its position fell 7.34% to 403500 lots. COMEX silver positions rose 9.09 per cent to 186900 hands as of the latest reporting period. The trading volume of Shanghai Bank expanded, rising to 3.397 million lots. Positions fell 10.46 per cent to 940300 hands.

Market summary: the recent resilient US economic data and the Fed's monetary policy statement have caused precious metal prices to rise and fall, but we still need to grasp the main contradiction that the US consumption data is weakening and the Fed's monetary policy will turn to marginal easing this year. At present, the gold and silver price ratio is still relatively high, and the return of the gold and silver price ratio will be presented in the form of a big rise in silver. International silver prices still have some room to rise after a correction. Strategic short-term recommendations wait and see, after the price correction is stable, go long after the price correction, focusing on the long allocation of silver. The reference operating range of Shanghai gold main company is 534-560 yuan / g, and that of Shanghai silver main company is 7546-8315 yuan / kg.

Overall US CPI rose 3.4 per cent in April from a year earlier and 3.4 per cent of the pre-compliance period, down from 3.5 per cent of the previous value. In the United States, the CPI quarterly annulus ratio in April was 0.3%, lower than the expected and previous value of 0.4%. The unseasonally adjusted core CPI of the United States in April was 3.6%, in line with expectations and lower than the previous value of 3.8%. In the United States, the core CPI ring ratio after the April quarterly adjustment was 0.3%, in line with expectations and lower than the previous value of 0.4%.

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